The Q4 season can be the most profitable — or the most punishing — time of year for consumer product brands.
On a recent episode of Foodbevy’s podcast Start Up to Scale, BELAY’s Director of Sales Brad Ebenoeh shared tactical insights to help CPG founders navigate the complexity of Black Friday, holiday promotions, and year-end cash flow.
If Q4 is your brand’s moment to drive revenue, these are the core strategies you need to have in place.
1. Know Your Margins by Channel
One of Ebenoeh’s first takeaways: “Know your numbers by sales channel.”
That means understanding the full unit economics behind each platform — Shopify, Amazon, wholesale, or retail.
You need to break down:
- Landed cost per SKU
- Gross margin and contribution margin
- Fulfillment and shipping costs
- Channel-specific ad spend
- Average order value
Without this clarity, you’re guessing when it comes to discounting, forecasting, and planning. With it, you can confidently run promotions without eroding your bottom line.
2. Choose a Strategy: Profit vs. Acquisition
Not all Q4 strategies are created equal.
Ebenoeh challenged founders to define their goal upfront:
- Profit-focused brands: If your product only sells during the holidays, margin matters more than volume.
- Acquisition-focused brands: If your product has year-round retention potential, you might accept a short-term loss to gain long-term value.
Know whether you’re selling once or seeding a subscription. Your Q4 strategy should reflect your customer lifecycle, not just the season.
3. Update Landed Costs. Don't Use Last Year’s Numbers.
One of the most common mistakes?
Using outdated cost data. With frequent shifts in raw materials, packaging, tariffs, and transportation, your COGS from last January likely doesn’t hold up.
Ebenoeh advises reviewing landed costs ahead of any major Q4 push, especially if you’ve recently changed suppliers, experienced delays, or added SKUs.
Even if you use software like QuickBooks or an inventory management system like Cin7, don’t rely on it alone. Often, the most accurate modeling happens in a spreadsheet, line by line.
4. Forecast Demand Without Overcommitting Inventory
You can't afford to guess on inventory levels.
Brad emphasized a structured approach that includes:
- Lead times and reorder minimums
- Safety stock planning
- Vendor reliability (do they consistently deliver full orders?)
- Storage capacity and warehousing costs
And what if you miss your sales targets?
You need a liquidation or discounting plan in place before you overbuy. For CPG brands, shelf life matters, and unsold inventory can become a liability – fast.
5. Plan Cash Flow Week by Week
Cash is king in Q4, but it’s also the first thing to go if you’re unprepared.
Ebenoeh recommended using a 13-week rolling cash flow to project spend against revenue, factoring in inventory purchases, fixed expenses, and any planned promotions.
He also shared this key insight:
“The best time to secure financing is when you don’t need it.”
After a strong Q4, use your momentum to apply for a line of credit or financing before cash gets tight. Build a relationship with a local or regional bank — not just a large institution — so you have options when you need them.
6. Match Expenses to Seasonality
Ebenoeh offered an overlooked tactic: Time your big annual expenses around your strongest revenue months.
For example, if Q4 is your peak, consider negotiating insurance renewals or major software costs for January when cash is flowing.
The inverse is true for summer-heavy products—avoid Q4 billing if winter is your off-season.
Final Takeaway
Ebenoeh's appearance on Foodbevy’s Startup to Scale podcast underscored one consistent theme: planning beats reacting.
The brands that perform well during Q4 are not scrambling. They’re modeling. They’re monitoring cash.
And they’re making pricing, promo, and inventory decisions rooted in real numbers.
Want a finance partner who understands the rhythm of CPG?
At BELAY, we specialize in helping founders make data-driven financial decisions, whether it's Q4 planning, cash flow forecasting, or real-time inventory modeling.
Brad Ebenoeh and our team bring deep experience to help you lead with clarity and act with confidence.
👉 Learn more about BELAY’s fractional finance services